This is nearly a continual topic on forums and blogs, and honestly I don’t know why. I’ll use the most recent example: “Dethroning WoW” over at Tobold’s.First, the obvious: why does WoW have to be dethroned? Allow me to answer that: because it’s our fickle nature. We just love to build something up and put it on a pedestal, be it a celebrity, politician, movie, book or game. Once it’s on that pedestal, however, we no longer care. By the time we manage to place our object of affection on the pedestal of worship, something new and shiny comes along and our affection instantly changes target, and now we can’t wait to knock the pedestal out from under the now seemingly arrogant and obnoxious object of our prior affections. We give them all the tools to enable them: the attention, the confidence, the paparazzi, and then finally that which is simultaneously the beacon of their height and the instrument of their destruction — a soapbox from which they can speak their beliefs and opinions. We need look no further than Michael Jackson, Tom Cruise, or Britney Spears for validation of that theory. In summary: we love to watch a train wreck, especially one of our own creation.
Blizzard has the numbers: 9 million subscribers worldwide. No other Western client-based MMORPG (yes, I’m qualifying this statement :grin:) can boast anywhere near those numbers. Blizzard has become the Microsoft of the MMORPG genre. If Steve Jobs had his way, Apple would have been the biggest name out there and we’d all be using OSX on our Macs. Or what if Linux was the big name in operating systems? We’d all be using Linux, but bashing it daily and griping about all the security holes (yes, it has some but no one cares because it’s a small target base). SOE was once the King of the genre with Everquest but no more. Never again? Well, we’ve all heard “never say never,” but there’s too much rampant (and often unjustified at this point) SOE hating out there in the MMO community. Every product they touch will have a stigma, a taint, attached to it for quite some time to come.
We’ve given WoW all the tools it will ever need to create its own train wreck for us to revel in, though I suspect it will be a very gradual whimpering fade rather than a spectacular crash.
Not a single game announced to date has the power behind it to topple WoW on its own. Warhammer? Puh-leez. It might do well, but then again that game is currently in a Vanguard-ian hype machine and the fanbois are eating it up all over again. They just don’t learn. Star Trek Online? No way. Just like with LOTRO, the IP will be its downfall. Star Trek in particular is too big of an IP with too many rabid fans; there is too much at stake for Perpetual to take many risks. My prediction is STO will be a “safe” MMO, similar to LOTRO in that regards. Not taking many chances, stick to what is known to work, the only major paradigm shift will be the graphics and sound effects changing from the overdone fantasy swords and sorcery to Roddenberry’s phasers and stun grenades.
One of Tobold’s commenters wrote this about Perpetual, and I’ve seen this many times in other forums and blogs about various developers:
Star Trek Online has the brand recognition, but the developers have no previous success in the mmorpg genre.
No, they don’t. But neither did Blizzard and look what happened. Bioware has absolutely no experience in the MMORPG genre either, yet people are already busily hefting them onto that pedestal… On the other hand, Brad McQuaid achieved success and recognition with Everquest, completed his trials of Ascension to become the Quasi-deity of the Hardcore and Old-School Gamers and oh, what a train wreck Vanguard was. How the Hardcore and Old-School Gamers reveled in his demise. Where is McQuaid these days? Locked away in his dark office reading “It’s Ok, Real Men Can Cry” self-help books?
The only team that will be able to “dethrone” WoW will be the new team Blizzard puts together for their next foray into the MMORPG genre, and they can do that on recognition alone. WoW gave them the numbers, the attention and the money to pull it off. No one else can say that. The only real question is how long will Blizzard wait to start working on their next MMO — keeping in mind of course the 3-5 year typical development cycle — so that they don’t risk taking away attention from their current cash cow?
If any team includes “dethroning WoW” as one of their goals, their game is doomed right then and there. It tells me they’re too concerned with the here and now, too concerned with someone else’s game and not spending enough time being creative and concerned with their own damned game. Don’t worry about what Blizzard’s game has done or is doing. Don’t worry about their throne. Build your own kingdom and your own throne to sit upon. Trust me, we’re anxiously awaiting to knock you off that one, too.
Tags: MMO Gaming
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