Yesterday’s interview with LOTRO Executive Producer Jeffrey Steefel over at EuroGamer has provoked several “WTF?” blog and forum posts, mostly due to what I perceive as misreading and sensationalism based on this sentence:
And then, there’s another level of success, which is reaching a certain mass-market critical mass, which to be totally fair, only Blizzard has achieved completely so far. We think that we are the game that has the most likelihood of being the second to do that, but we’re not there yet.
The first mention of this I saw was on Massively.com which tends to aim for sensationalistic headlines and articles anyway — which just cheapens the site in my own opinion — such as “LOTRO could be the next World of Warcraft says Steefel!” Tobold and several other bloggers joined in with more of the same, and with everyone missing the point.
We bloggers often decry what a shame it is that post-WoW if an MMO doesn’t get millions of subscribers it’s a failure; that WoW is an anomaly that deserves to be paid attention to but should not be the sole defining bar by which every MMO is to be judged. Yet how often do we live by our own words? All those same bloggers who have expressed these sentiments also turn around and do exactly what they complain about.
Everyone has read that single sentence from the interview and assumes (and we do know what happens when we assume, right?) Steefel has been “smoking the pipeweed” as Tobold put it, and thinks that LOTRO will become the second MMO to attain eleven million subscribers, or whatever magical number equals success.
What Steefel said is that only Blizzard has achieved mass-market critical mass. What does that mean? I’ll do the dangerous thing and use Wikipedia since they’ve collected the various definitions of the phrase into one simple-to-read list. Within the context of this discussion there are two possible definitions of “critical mass.”
First would be the obvious: we’re discussing video games. Video games are computer software. For software, critical mass means that “the source code grows too large to effectively manage without a complete rewrite.” That doesn’t sound like a goal any development team would be looking forward to or setting as a goal.
The second, and correct, definition that applies here is social critical mass. Social because “mass market” refers to the largest group of consumers for a product, and also because MMOG’s are social games. “Critical mass is a sociodynamic term to describe the existence of sufficient momentum in a social system such that the momentum becomes self-sustaining and fuels further growth.” World of Warcraft certainly fits that description. It started off with a bang, and grew as both heavy advertising and heavy word-of-mouth propelled the game into the genre’s first true mass-market success. It quickly achieved its critical mass, it’s own self-sustaining growth as players from all walks of life jumped on the bandwagon. Southpark, Mr. T and William Shatner just added fuel to the already white-hot fire.
Now, what Steefel says he is hopeful for is that between Mines of Moria and renewed public awareness of Tolkien resulting from the upcoming Hobbit movies that LOTRO will achieve its own critical mass. That doesn’t have to mean LOTRO achieving eleven million+ subscribers. It simply means that there is enough momentum from growth and popularity that the growth becomes self-sustaining, much like happened with WoW. I’m not reading that as Steefel throwing around hard numbers or waving Gandalf’s staff around claiming LOTRO will overtake WoW, WAR, or any other game. From a purely business perspective, I can certainly see where Turbine would want a slice of the Blizzard pie, but all I’m getting from Steefel’s statement is that he is hopeful that LOTRO attains the phenomenon of critical mass for itself.
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This is all a result of people watching too much television. lol
Excellent deduction, my good man.
Usually people just like to eat up and amplify things for controversy’s sake.
I was thinking EVE’s constant growth might qualify, but on further review, it doesn’t feel like the EVE community sustains itself at a constant rate of growth without the need for CCP to market.
I’m not saying WoW doesn’t market, just that even if they didn’t they would still probably grow through sheer weight of name recognition.
Yet you leave out the fact that Steefel, based on his wording…
“in fact most articles that you guys and others write, if they’re referencing a couple of MMOs it tends to be WOW and Lord of the Rings”
Steefel …please come down off of cloud 9.
He always keeps putting LOTRO on the same level as WoW in the wording.
Especially for a game that AoC NPD sales beat in just one month, compared to LOTROs NPD numbers for all of 2007?
That’s some tricky language to use.
Why?
For one, mass market is the exact opposite of “niche market” which LOTRO is at this time.
LOTRO suffers from catering to a specific group of players.
It’s die hard casualness takes away half of the audience right off the bat.
While other games that do have the “mass” appeal, like WoW, Guild Wars, try to cater to an overall audience.
The real reason this interview is even an issue is Steefel is coming late to the hype game. And he is not bringing an “A” game.
With AoC, WAR, and WoTLK on the horizon, and using this hyped language now when WAR will be on the verge of being the new #2 MMO, I think his head is in the clouds.
Hype the MoM expansion, but be careful of wording such as this is what it really boils down to.
Without supporting numbers for sales or scrips like so many other companies, it also makes him look foolish. People prefer proof over lip service.
We have to accept that people will read into anything said by any developer these days.
Steefel stepped on some sacred ground when he tried to compare to WoW.
Think of “Steak” when you read his commentary, and you will get my drift.
Very well put, Scott. Thanks for the post.
Openedge, I don’t see how Steefel is late to the hype game considering the game’s first commercial expansion is coming out in a few months. But then I don’t understand a lot of your comment. What do you mean by “die hard casualness” for instance?
And I don’t see how you put that broken toy known as AoC in the same ‘bucket’ as WoW, LOTRO and presumably (unless disaster strikes), WAR.
It’s really a shame that every interview these days has to devolve in to a battle where the interviewee does in fact have to be careful of wording (and I do agree with you that this is the case). You can’t have a ‘casual conversation’ with a representative of a game any more, thanks to the blogosphere.
@Pete S
This is the very reason he is late to the hype game. Not only is MoM out in 2 months (when the blogosphere and news sites are full of stories of WAR and WoTLK), but you can do a search for MoM on the net, and the amount of news is pitiful.
As to “Die hard casual”, this is EXACTLY what LOTRO is. Pure casual gameplay. Turbine has stated it, players, forum posters, bloggers all agree…this game is PURE Easycore (hop in for 1 hour, and can hop right out, accomplishing what you need…).
Don’t get me wrong, I know a lot of games do this. LOTRO caters to this crowd though heavily.
By doing this, the game has been noted by many news sites, blogs, and forum posters (again) as a “niche” game.
As to putting the broken toy of AoC up as a sample. Again, that is the reason it is mentioned. If Steefel thinks LOTRO could have as much “mass appeal” as WoW, well, they need to sell copies first. According to NPD numbers, AoC sold as many copies (actually MORE copies) of their game in one month, than LOTRO did for ALL of 2007. WAR will walk all over AoC in my opinion, but LOTRO does not even get close to the kind of numbers AoC had, and Steefel is still stating LOTRO is mentioned in the same sentences as WoW.
As to blogomania…you have that right. If a developer mentions any type of success now, it will turn into a “Prove it” attitude from the net.
LOTRO has always been “niche”, and thanks to some still leftover issues, unless they make MASS improvements, MASS will only be used before the word “exodus” when WAR strikes.
LotRO will never get as big as WoW because they appeal to completely different demographics of people. THANK THE LORD.
I still have to push back on the “die hard casual” thing. LOTRO has more forced grouping during the climb to cap than WoW, AoC, or EQ2. In fact one of my gripes with the game is the amount of time you have to spend LFG in order to get the many “Fellowship” quests done while they’re still relatively ‘level appropriate.’
Quest objectives also have to be found/figured out, unlike AoC (or WAR) where you can check the map and see exactly where you have to go.
I’m not claiming LOTRO is “hardcore” or anything; I just don’t understand what makes it more casual than these other games.
@Pete S
I really think it deals with the audience and the playstyles of that age crowd.
LOTRO has a large population of older players Turbine interview
And as Adam Mersky states
“You don’t feel like you have to put in ten or twenty hours a week in order to actually get value out of your experience”
So, age, family life, time to play. All deciding factors for casual vs hardcore.
To your arguments, the LFG does not make LOTRO “not casual”, it just makes it an annoyance of a simplified game forcing grouping..especially for a player base who does not have hours to dedicate to this game. I cant count how many forum posts or blog posts of players who decide to skip a books final chapter due to not finding a group…
Searching for objectives is also the purvey of the casual player. They love to explore, not grind that next level like the hardcore. So, by making the quests more “exploratory”, they give the casual person a feeling of accomplishment finding this place. Like an “achievement” on xbox.
Pure and simple, the game caters to the crowd that does not have time to dedicate to a game or make it their life.
Compare this to the WoW crowd or EQ2 crowd (look at Tipa or Stargraces blogs to get an idea of how EQ2 has become a “lifestyle” for these players). These games become a part of their lives, and what they do.
LOTRO is more a diversion, like Tetris or Bejewelled.
I found this, a very good write up about LOTRO and the casual audience.
LOTRO answers Casual gamers
And note one popular bloggers comments…
Bildo: “I’m still having fun with it, myself. It is indeed very casual. But maybe a bit too much? I find myself not having the itch to play even though I like it. Instead I log in when I really want to, instead of because I feel I HAVE to”
In that same blog post, also note one big item that most players feel makes a game hardcore.
and there appears to be no kind of competitive long term goals
Players dedicate time to PvP, as they need to keep their skills up, they must “compete”. AI based gaming (PvE) always screams casual. And then take into consideration the other form of hardcore..
Raids.
LOTRO does not focus on these for endgame fun, so another hardcore feature missing from LOTRO.
It boils down to the overall addictive features of most MMOs are not in LOTRO…yet. This is where the casual wording comes in.
But, I am just one person. If you don’t believe me, go on any game forum for MMOs, and ask any LOTRO player.
Are you hardcore or casual.
I think you will find the same answer I give.
I’m really wondering why you seem to be bashing LOTRO because it’s designed as a more casual PvE game.
“(hop in for 1 hour, and can hop right out, accomplishing what you need…)” were your words and they describe Guild Wars to a tee, which is currently your favorite game. You have a job, a wife, a life… isn’t that a good thing that you two can pop into GW for a little bit and feel like you accomplished something when you logout? Why is that great for GW but horrible for LOTRO?
As Shawn mentioned, and I laid a hint at by defining “mass-market” in the article, LOTRO is aiming for its own audience, not the WoW audience, and certainly not the AoC/WAR audience. By audience, I’ll just say that I mean educated consumers who know what they’re getting, not those who just pick up any box that says “MMORPG” and then assumes every new MMO is exactly like the last one. WoW is about fast action, fast leveling, then a raiding end-game or arena PvP. Blizzard has never minced words about that. If players have been ignorant of that fact or simply refuse to admit it, that’s their fault not Blizzard’s. If we’re wanting “different” games and diversity in the genre, then why do we all bitch and moan when new games don’t follow Blizzard’s path? EQ2 has a metric ton of content, and it has raids as well, but I never see anyone describing it as a raiding game. Vanguard finally has a huge raid and it sounds like the team is on track to release a second one before the end of the year. LOTRO launched with one raid and added two more over the past year in their content updates. MoM is launching with one, and if they follow the exact same process, they could add two more by this time next year. That’s not too shabby in my book.
EQ2, LOTRO, Vanguard all have raids for those who enjoy them. But only WoW (and EQ before it) have said raiding is our real game. I don’t have the time or desire to partake of Blizzard’s “real game” any longer, and I’m not the only one.
A lot of the LOTRO players on my server, and several in my kinship, are former WoW hardcore raiders. We came (and stayed) with LOTRO precisely because it doesn’t have a hardcore raiding end-game. Because it’s about an on-going journey rather than rushing to level cap and into a forced treadmill. Players who jump from game to game assuming they’re all like WoW, and they power their way to level cap then bitch about it are ignorant consumers and ignorant players. If anything, I would say LOTRO has more in common with Vanguard than WoW. Both games provide tons of solo, small group, and group content all through the leveling process. Both are about the journey rather than the destination. LOTRO just makes it easier to get the group together to have the actual fun, with various types of teleports and swift travel. We can’t get around and grouped up as quickly as in GW, but a lot faster than WoW while Vanguard still has too many old-school “barriers to fun” that lead to boredom and wasted time waiting for everyone to get to the same spot to even begin the adventure.
Well, I am a LOTRO player, so I don’t really feel the need to ask anyone else. I also beta’d WAR since last February, played AoC in beta and for 2 months after launch, and come and go in EQ2 (mostly because my girlfriend plays it as her ‘home’ MMO) since launch. I played WoW from F&F Alpha up to just before TBC. Played POTBS for a couple months. Tabula Rasa for a while.
I think we’re at the “agree to disagree” stage. In my opinion and according to my definition, LOTRO is right about the middle of the casual spectrum. POTBS is at the hardcore end (EVE as well, but I’m basing that on others’ experiences, not my own). When you can lose a ship and with it days or weeks of playing time, that’s hardcore (to me). At the truly casual end would be stuff like Dungeon Runners. You jump in, play for 5 minutes, jump out… quests are all Kill X Beasts, death is irrelevant.
But anyway, let’s say for the sake of argument that you’re right that LOTRO is “die hard” casual.
What really baffles me is when you say LOTRO is a niche game, and then you say “Pure and simple, the game [LOTRO] caters to the crowd that does not have time to dedicate to a game or make it their life. ”
So you’re saying the group of gamers that do have time to make a game “their life” are the mainstream, and the group of gamers that have (for example) 10-15 hours per week to play games is the niche?
I have to say I think you have that completely backwards. But we definitely see the world in very different ways, and neither of us is going to convince the other, so I’ll just wish you happy gaming, and drop the topic. Last word is yours.
*cross-posted with Scott*
I would say that LOTR has a very story based questing system compared to other MMOs. The books and chapters structure the game’s content and kind of force players to run through the lore of Middle Earth. It’s not like World of Warcraft where players can just accept a quest and run through it for the reward.
While I appreciate the storytelling in the game, I don’t think Tolkien’s work has the mass market appeal to pull it off. The Lord of the Rings novels aren’t exactly pulp fiction especially when you compare them to recent fantasy series like “Harry Potter” or “The Wheel of Time”. Tolkien is the basis for modern day fantasy, but I would consider his work a classic piece of literature nowadays. And everyone knows that the classics are assigned in English class, not something you find on the bestsellers list.
http://relmstein.blogspot.com/2008/08/defining-critical-mass-in-mmos.html
I don’t know that Tolkien is considered “classic” in the same sentence as Shakespeare or Machiavelli, but I certainly consider him “classic (fantasy) fiction” anyway.
Honestly, I read the novels back in high school, in my AD&D days. The first book took me three months to finish. It was so incredibly boring it couldn’t keep my attention. The latter section picked up pace, and the next two books in the trilogy were more interesting and I finished them both within a week or two. But I’ve had zero desire to re-read them, or to read any of his other Middle Earth books.
I remember finishing the trilogy and wondering why it was so highly regarded. At the time I would easily have put my vote for the Dragonlance Chronicles as a far superior trilogy. Re-reading that now, I’d probably change my mind just on comparisons of writing style and the work Tolkien put into developing the good part of his Middle Earth mythos. But he didn’t go the distance. Middle Earth is very black & white, good & evil, and only the good side was developed. The evil side is simply evil for the sake of evil and only serves to demonstrate the heroism of the good side. At least most modern fiction develops all the characters, all the factions, and gives the reader some understanding of the motivations of all those involved in the conflicts and hopefully some sympathy with why they chose their path.
@Scott
“(hop in for 1 hour, and can hop right out, accomplishing what you need…)” were your words and they describe Guild Wars to a tee, which is currently your favorite game. You have a job, a wife, a life… isn’t that a good thing that you two can pop into GW for a little bit and feel like you accomplished something when you logout? Why is that great for GW but horrible for LOTRO?
I never bashed LOTRO for this. Please show me where.
I never said LOTRO sucks because it is casual, etc. I never said it was horrible because it was casual. I am not arguing the casual for my own sake anyways…
My opinion is I think Steefel himself believes the game can be more successful. I disagree is all and it is due to the casual bent.
You say this may describe GW, yet, thanks to the PvP component, they have instantly catered to the other crowd who wish to either grind out skills, or PvP in large battles, etc. The game caters to a wider audience. Just like WoW. In so many words, the casual can play, but the hardcore have something to enjoy as well. If Sales are any indicator, it works (on Amazon it is 2nd behind WoW with 16% market share)
As to me having a wife and a life, yes, the casual WOULD be a good thing, yet, there is NOTHING else to do BUT be casual. Yet, in GW, we constantly do 3-5 hour sessions and never get bored. LOTRO bored us many a time, as we had nothing to break the monotony.
When we played EQ2 or WoW or GW, we felt like logging in. LOTRO did not do this.
But, you are making this discussion personal, and it is not about MY feelings for the game, but if LOTRO can be viable enough to reach a “culture” like phenomenon.
You are arguing this as if it is for MY benefit, and this is not MY argument. My argument deals with how Steefel believes LOTRO can be more to the masses. Until they change track though, it cannot happen.
As you stated
LOTRO is aiming for its own audience, not the WoW audience
But, the problem is the MMO audiences largest population IS the WoW audience.
Mythic understands this. NCSoft understands this. Read some articles about Aion and how they are catering to the WoW crowd…
@Pete S
So you’re saying the group of gamers that do have time to make a game “their life” are the mainstream,
Lets look at the top games on Xfire…
The top 5
World of Warcraft
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
Call of Duty 2
Counter-Strike: Source
Battlefield 2
Look at how many hours are played for these games. Look at how well they have done in sales.
Now, of course any game can have the component of casual play, but not one single one of these games cater to a “niche” market.
If we look at the definition of “niche”
Not mass marketed. Marketed to a smaller group of consumers who share a specific need/desire that is not a universal consumer expectation.
Now, based on that definition, which game would be niche…
CoD4 or LOTRO?
As an example, I will use my son, and his friends. They can average 30+ hours a week on Xbox live, especially the weekends. One of them even wants to buy EVERY cool game that comes out. These games have been CoD4, Halo3, etc. All hardcore shooters.
Is this niche? NO.
It should be though, right?….but, these games are mass marketed, because they SELL.
LOTRO has yet to prove it is a mover. It sales have been lackluster according to all data. How do you move a product? You make CHANGES. Turbine has given no indication to move out of its niche yet to sell more games.
Now, of course, the market for purchasing games belongs to the age 25-40.
And how does this market get reached? This 25-40 crowd…
Television, normally traveled websites (CNN, News agencies, Google, etc…)
Now, which game will this 25-40 crowd be buying? CoD4 or LOTRO?
Marketing is one key.
Reason WoW is still a monster.
Overall we have two issues. Turbine caters the gameplay to one type of crowd. The game does not have mass market appeal yet either due to its low visual acuity.
It will continue to be “niche” as long as it is not mass marketed and as long as the game is catered to one type of audience.
The most successful MMOs cater to a wider range. And we will know this as a fact when WAR launches.
My opinion is I think Steefel himself believes the game can be more successful. I disagree is all and it is due to the casual bent.
Define “more successful” for me, because it seems you are defining it as “more successful than WoW” whereas I’m reading Steefel’s comment as “more successful than it currently is.” No game is going to immediately be “more successful than WoW.” WoW itself took 4 years of critical-mass growth to reach it’s current population. Anyone expecting WAR to launch with 11 million subscribers, or even have that many within a few months or a year, is just being completely unrealistic. For the sake of argument let’s say WAR experiences the exact same growth as WoW. Third quarter of 2012 they’d have their 11 million players. In that same four years, WoW will be on its decline anyway so WAR can potentially “beat” or equal WoW of 2008. No one is “beating” WoW in the here and now. No one.
WoW itself has always had a revolving door population. For every one player who burns out and leaves or simply grows out of WoW to something with a different flavor or more complexity, three more new players come in to take his place. That’s common anyway, but especially with a sensation of that size. And that is critical mass. This is also touching on what I’m referring to by LOTRO targeting its own audience. Say players went to WoW expecting one thing, or having no expectations but grew to dislike its raiding end-game. LOTRO (or EQ2 or Vanguard or others) could all appeal to those people, whereas none of those games would necessarily appeal to those who love the raiding, those who love the hardcore mentality. AoC and WAR primarily appeal to the PvPers, especially WAR with its emphasis on RvR and attempting to bring together PvEers and PvPers. But the bottom line is that a good chunk of people are PvE-only no matter what, just as a good chunk are PvP-only. Despite seeing cool screenshots of cool-looking monsters, I have yet to hear one single comment on any blog that WAR’s PvE is anything other than bland. WAR will be huge, but I don’t see its audience as being the overall LOTRO audience. The LOTRO players who only play PvMP? Yeah, they’re absolutely WAR’s audience.
Casual is the way of the future. All the old farts who yearn for their 8+ hour raids, mandatory raid progression, mob camping, lengthy meaningless travel times, severe death penalties… they’re dinosaurs who just don’t know it or won’t admit it. They can all whine in their forums and blogs all they want, but their choices for anything new are quickly dwindling. Hell, those of us who appreciate any of the current traditional MMORPG’s are next in line for extinction. Look at WoW itself. While Blizzard stupidly refuses to repurpose old content, they do repurpose their current content and make it *gasp* more casual. They’ve lowered the barrier to entry in many ways — group size and time requirements especially — to let more people into their “real game” of raiding, and let them accomplish things and get to a raid lock point in less time. In other words, more casual. Rather than having to re-design content, isn’t it a better idea to look at the reality of what happens there and design your new content around that from the start? That’s what Blizzard is doing for Lich King, and it’s what Turbine did for LOTRO and Moria.
As for marketing, I suspect that’s a large part of why Turbine went with Warner Bros. to distribute Moria rather than sticking with Midway, who distributed Shadows of Angmar. Midway gave LOTRO one hell of a lot more marketing than Atari ever did for DDO, but overall Midway hasn’t made much noise for the game. Warner Bros. just might be able to put their stronger arm (and wallet) behind Moria. Time will tell.
Incidentally, I’m being told that the music from the Moria teaser video Turbine put out recently featured music from the LOTR movies! Perhaps an additional benefit to the Warner Bros. involvement? Could the Howard Shore score be making an appearance in game? I could even fantasize of changing the Fellowship’s NPC art to match the actors and even bringing them in for voice overs…
Scott, first of all I apologize for ‘forking’ the discussion.
I’m still arguing that LOTRO isn’t all that casual though. I’ll grant you it isn’t all built up around 3-4 hour raids (thank goodness) but I still find that I have to build my schedule around getting a lot of Fellowship quests done. Like having dinner earlier so there’s time for me to accomplish a particular quest.
I’m not bashing LOTRO; I quite enjoy the game. I’m just saying I disagree that it belongs in the same category, as Openedge suggests, as Bejeweled.
That’s a side-effect of using terminology that has multiple uses in the industry. When we look at “casual games” it’s Bejeweled, or MSN Games or Yahoo! Games. Or yes, The Sims.
But then exclusively to MMOG’s we have “casual” vs. “hardcore.” Even then, it’s difficult to get anyone on either side of the argument to come to a single definition of each, though we most often lean to the “time played” side of things.
For LOTRO specifically, I appreciate that it took me longer (though I played this way intentionally as well) to reach level cap than in WoW. And that was WoW before all the crazy “fast xp” crap they’ve added. I also appreciate that I can run an Annuminas instance or a Battlefield Defense Point instance typically in an hour or less. For the “hardcore” I suppose there’s always Fornost, which is like pulling teeth to get a group for (I still haven’t managed to) because the average completion time is 5 hours.
No worries about ‘forking’ the discussion; I have a horrible tendency to go off on random tangents myself.
The problem with this whole argument is that the way success is being determined doesn’t even seem to be based upon anything but personal feelings.
The problem with the “casual can’t be as successful in terms of sales numbers argument is that little backs it up in terms of hard data. Examples such as Tetris and Bejeweled actually hurt the argument… you’re talking about two of the most successful video games of all time. And they’re both far more “critical mass” in that sense than WoW is even at this stage.
LotRO doesn’t require a lifetime commitment per se, but I play with plenty of people who put in tons of hours and spend six hours on raids in a night. The difference with the LotRO crowd more seems to be that they get that that’s not the end-all-be-all of the experience. It’s PART of it.
I think this is more the mentality of the most vocal players, if anything. Citing a few LotRO players as being happy with the few hours they put in against the WoW players who put in 40 hours a week doesn’t exactly prove anything that relates to critical mass as Steefel has been discussing it. We have no real idea of how many of these people exist in either camp and, honestly, I have to say that I have the hardest time getting people to try LotRO because they think it’ll be too “hardcore fantasy Tolkien” or something to that effect.
Supposedly some of these comments from him were based upon (or at least in line with) some NPD numbers I never bothered to look at anyway lol. At least according to some people elsewhere.
I kind of just took this more like the original post did, that he’s referring to it hitting its “peak” so to speak. He doesn’t feel it has happened yet and I would say that’s likely accurate. It came after the major film interest was dwindling and certainly the Hobbit can help that — if they market it properly and maybe work in some session quests that involve those familiar characters.