The problem with the “casual can’t be as successful in terms of sales numbers argument is that little backs it up in terms of hard data. Examples such as Tetris and Bejeweled actually hurt the argument… you’re talking about two of the most successful video games of all time. And they’re both far more “critical mass” in that sense than WoW is even at this stage.

LotRO doesn’t require a lifetime commitment per se, but I play with plenty of people who put in tons of hours and spend six hours on raids in a night. The difference with the LotRO crowd more seems to be that they get that that’s not the end-all-be-all of the experience. It’s PART of it.

I think this is more the mentality of the most vocal players, if anything. Citing a few LotRO players as being happy with the few hours they put in against the WoW players who put in 40 hours a week doesn’t exactly prove anything that relates to critical mass as Steefel has been discussing it. We have no real idea of how many of these people exist in either camp and, honestly, I have to say that I have the hardest time getting people to try LotRO because they think it’ll be too “hardcore fantasy Tolkien” or something to that effect.

Supposedly some of these comments from him were based upon (or at least in line with) some NPD numbers I never bothered to look at anyway lol. At least according to some people elsewhere.

I kind of just took this more like the original post did, that he’s referring to it hitting its “peak” so to speak. He doesn’t feel it has happened yet and I would say that’s likely accurate. It came after the major film interest was dwindling and certainly the Hobbit can help that — if they market it properly and maybe work in some session quests that involve those familiar characters.

But then exclusively to MMOG’s we have “casual” vs. “hardcore.” Even then, it’s difficult to get anyone on either side of the argument to come to a single definition of each, though we most often lean to the “time played” side of things.

For LOTRO specifically, I appreciate that it took me longer (though I played this way intentionally as well) to reach level cap than in WoW. And that was WoW before all the crazy “fast xp” crap they’ve added. I also appreciate that I can run an Annuminas instance or a Battlefield Defense Point instance typically in an hour or less. For the “hardcore” I suppose there’s always Fornost, which is like pulling teeth to get a group for (I still haven’t managed to) because the average completion time is 5 hours.

No worries about ‘forking’ the discussion; I have a horrible tendency to go off on random tangents myself.

I’m still arguing that LOTRO isn’t all that casual though. I’ll grant you it isn’t all built up around 3-4 hour raids (thank goodness) but I still find that I have to build my schedule around getting a lot of Fellowship quests done. Like having dinner earlier so there’s time for me to accomplish a particular quest.

I’m not bashing LOTRO; I quite enjoy the game. I’m just saying I disagree that it belongs in the same category, as Openedge suggests, as Bejeweled.

Define “more successful” for me, because it seems you are defining it as “more successful than WoW” whereas I’m reading Steefel’s comment as “more successful than it currently is.” No game is going to immediately be “more successful than WoW.” WoW itself took 4 years of critical-mass growth to reach it’s current population. Anyone expecting WAR to launch with 11 million subscribers, or even have that many within a few months or a year, is just being completely unrealistic. For the sake of argument let’s say WAR experiences the exact same growth as WoW. Third quarter of 2012 they’d have their 11 million players. In that same four years, WoW will be on its decline anyway so WAR can potentially “beat” or equal WoW of 2008. No one is “beating” WoW in the here and now. No one.

WoW itself has always had a revolving door population. For every one player who burns out and leaves or simply grows out of WoW to something with a different flavor or more complexity, three more new players come in to take his place. That’s common anyway, but especially with a sensation of that size. And that is critical mass. This is also touching on what I’m referring to by LOTRO targeting its own audience. Say players went to WoW expecting one thing, or having no expectations but grew to dislike its raiding end-game. LOTRO (or EQ2 or Vanguard or others) could all appeal to those people, whereas none of those games would necessarily appeal to those who love the raiding, those who love the hardcore mentality. AoC and WAR primarily appeal to the PvPers, especially WAR with its emphasis on RvR and attempting to bring together PvEers and PvPers. But the bottom line is that a good chunk of people are PvE-only no matter what, just as a good chunk are PvP-only. Despite seeing cool screenshots of cool-looking monsters, I have yet to hear one single comment on any blog that WAR’s PvE is anything other than bland. WAR will be huge, but I don’t see its audience as being the overall LOTRO audience. The LOTRO players who only play PvMP? Yeah, they’re absolutely WAR’s audience.

Casual is the way of the future. All the old farts who yearn for their 8+ hour raids, mandatory raid progression, mob camping, lengthy meaningless travel times, severe death penalties… they’re dinosaurs who just don’t know it or won’t admit it. They can all whine in their forums and blogs all they want, but their choices for anything new are quickly dwindling. Hell, those of us who appreciate any of the current traditional MMORPG’s are next in line for extinction. Look at WoW itself. While Blizzard stupidly refuses to repurpose old content, they do repurpose their current content and make it *gasp* more casual. They’ve lowered the barrier to entry in many ways — group size and time requirements especially — to let more people into their “real game” of raiding, and let them accomplish things and get to a raid lock point in less time. In other words, more casual. Rather than having to re-design content, isn’t it a better idea to look at the reality of what happens there and design your new content around that from the start? That’s what Blizzard is doing for Lich King, and it’s what Turbine did for LOTRO and Moria.

As for marketing, I suspect that’s a large part of why Turbine went with Warner Bros. to distribute Moria rather than sticking with Midway, who distributed Shadows of Angmar. Midway gave LOTRO one hell of a lot more marketing than Atari ever did for DDO, but overall Midway hasn’t made much noise for the game. Warner Bros. just might be able to put their stronger arm (and wallet) behind Moria. Time will tell.

Incidentally, I’m being told that the music from the Moria teaser video Turbine put out recently featured music from the LOTR movies! Perhaps an additional benefit to the Warner Bros. involvement? Could the Howard Shore score be making an appearance in game? I could even fantasize of changing the Fellowship’s NPC art to match the actors and even bringing them in for voice overs…

I never bashed LOTRO for this. Please show me where.
I never said LOTRO sucks because it is casual, etc. I never said it was horrible because it was casual. I am not arguing the casual for my own sake anyways…
My opinion is I think Steefel himself believes the game can be more successful. I disagree is all and it is due to the casual bent.

You say this may describe GW, yet, thanks to the PvP component, they have instantly catered to the other crowd who wish to either grind out skills, or PvP in large battles, etc. The game caters to a wider audience. Just like WoW. In so many words, the casual can play, but the hardcore have something to enjoy as well. If Sales are any indicator, it works (on Amazon it is 2nd behind WoW with 16% market share)

As to me having a wife and a life, yes, the casual WOULD be a good thing, yet, there is NOTHING else to do BUT be casual. Yet, in GW, we constantly do 3-5 hour sessions and never get bored. LOTRO bored us many a time, as we had nothing to break the monotony.
When we played EQ2 or WoW or GW, we felt like logging in. LOTRO did not do this.

But, you are making this discussion personal, and it is not about MY feelings for the game, but if LOTRO can be viable enough to reach a “culture” like phenomenon.
You are arguing this as if it is for MY benefit, and this is not MY argument. My argument deals with how Steefel believes LOTRO can be more to the masses. Until they change track though, it cannot happen.
As you stated
LOTRO is aiming for its own audience, not the WoW audience
But, the problem is the MMO audiences largest population IS the WoW audience.
Mythic understands this. NCSoft understands this. Read some articles about Aion and how they are catering to the WoW crowd…

@Pete S
So you’re saying the group of gamers that do have time to make a game “their life” are the mainstream,

Lets look at the top games on Xfire…

The top 5
World of Warcraft
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
Call of Duty 2
Counter-Strike: Source
Battlefield 2

Look at how many hours are played for these games. Look at how well they have done in sales.
Now, of course any game can have the component of casual play, but not one single one of these games cater to a “niche” market.
If we look at the definition of “niche”
Not mass marketed. Marketed to a smaller group of consumers who share a specific need/desire that is not a universal consumer expectation.
Now, based on that definition, which game would be niche…
CoD4 or LOTRO?

As an example, I will use my son, and his friends. They can average 30+ hours a week on Xbox live, especially the weekends. One of them even wants to buy EVERY cool game that comes out. These games have been CoD4, Halo3, etc. All hardcore shooters.
Is this niche? NO.
It should be though, right?….but, these games are mass marketed, because they SELL.
LOTRO has yet to prove it is a mover. It sales have been lackluster according to all data. How do you move a product? You make CHANGES. Turbine has given no indication to move out of its niche yet to sell more games.

Now, of course, the market for purchasing games belongs to the age 25-40.
And how does this market get reached? This 25-40 crowd…
Television, normally traveled websites (CNN, News agencies, Google, etc…)

Now, which game will this 25-40 crowd be buying? CoD4 or LOTRO?

Marketing is one key.

Reason WoW is still a monster.

Overall we have two issues. Turbine caters the gameplay to one type of crowd. The game does not have mass market appeal yet either due to its low visual acuity.
It will continue to be “niche” as long as it is not mass marketed and as long as the game is catered to one type of audience.

The most successful MMOs cater to a wider range. And we will know this as a fact when WAR launches.

Honestly, I read the novels back in high school, in my AD&D days. The first book took me three months to finish. It was so incredibly boring it couldn’t keep my attention. The latter section picked up pace, and the next two books in the trilogy were more interesting and I finished them both within a week or two. But I’ve had zero desire to re-read them, or to read any of his other Middle Earth books.

I remember finishing the trilogy and wondering why it was so highly regarded. At the time I would easily have put my vote for the Dragonlance Chronicles as a far superior trilogy. Re-reading that now, I’d probably change my mind just on comparisons of writing style and the work Tolkien put into developing the good part of his Middle Earth mythos. But he didn’t go the distance. Middle Earth is very black & white, good & evil, and only the good side was developed. The evil side is simply evil for the sake of evil and only serves to demonstrate the heroism of the good side. At least most modern fiction develops all the characters, all the factions, and gives the reader some understanding of the motivations of all those involved in the conflicts and hopefully some sympathy with why they chose their path.

While I appreciate the storytelling in the game, I don’t think Tolkien’s work has the mass market appeal to pull it off. The Lord of the Rings novels aren’t exactly pulp fiction especially when you compare them to recent fantasy series like “Harry Potter” or “The Wheel of Time”. Tolkien is the basis for modern day fantasy, but I would consider his work a classic piece of literature nowadays. And everyone knows that the classics are assigned in English class, not something you find on the bestsellers list.

http://relmstein.blogspot.com/2008/08/defining-critical-mass-in-mmos.html

I think we’re at the “agree to disagree” stage. In my opinion and according to my definition, LOTRO is right about the middle of the casual spectrum. POTBS is at the hardcore end (EVE as well, but I’m basing that on others’ experiences, not my own). When you can lose a ship and with it days or weeks of playing time, that’s hardcore (to me). At the truly casual end would be stuff like Dungeon Runners. You jump in, play for 5 minutes, jump out… quests are all Kill X Beasts, death is irrelevant.

But anyway, let’s say for the sake of argument that you’re right that LOTRO is “die hard” casual.

What really baffles me is when you say LOTRO is a niche game, and then you say “Pure and simple, the game [LOTRO] caters to the crowd that does not have time to dedicate to a game or make it their life. ”

So you’re saying the group of gamers that do have time to make a game “their life” are the mainstream, and the group of gamers that have (for example) 10-15 hours per week to play games is the niche?

I have to say I think you have that completely backwards. But we definitely see the world in very different ways, and neither of us is going to convince the other, so I’ll just wish you happy gaming, and drop the topic. Last word is yours.